Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22ec…132e crypto 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$81 (+2%) realized +$100 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate51%41W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$456now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$49
30 days+$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$211
crypto 19% −$130
other 10% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 31 -0.0% -9.6% 71% 42% +11.3%
≤90d 41 -6.8% -15.7% 63% 41% -2.4%
all 81 -15.5% -23.5% 51% 36% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 36% -8.3%
10% -30.8% 21% -17.0%
15% -37.5% 12% -25.0%
20% -43.6% 10% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$456
Realized+$100
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses41 / 40
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage181d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan India 91¢ 87¢ $474 $456 −$19 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$13 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$11 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$34 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$26 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $76 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $55 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +10%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -10%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $44 +$6 +14%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $149 +$49 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 28 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +18%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $299 +$213 +71%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $143 +$42 +29%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $30 +$6 +20%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $28 +$8 +28%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $53 +$6 +12%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $113 −$63 -56%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $175 −$12 -7%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $73 +$12 +16%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $101 +$35 +35%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $291 −$16 -6%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 31 $25 −$25 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 06 $73 −$25 -34%
T20 World Cup: England vs New Zealand Feb 27 $40 −$21 -54%
T20 World Cup: England vs Pakistan Feb 25 $41 +$21 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Feb 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Feb 24 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Feb 24 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Feb 24 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 24 $68 −$14 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 85¢ $85 55m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $88 58m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 91¢ $91 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 93¢ $47 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 94¢ $47 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 94¢ $28 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 94¢ $35 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 94¢ $53 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $7 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $14 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $7 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $455.62 · official $460.07 (match) · 312 history records