Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:16:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22eb…7347 other 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,552 (-2%) realized −$2,552 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate26%34W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$904per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$799now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$12
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$85
politics 34% −$45
sports 20% −$2,584
culture 3% −$4
economics 2% −$1
world 1% −$13
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 68 -19.6% -27.2% 6% 0% -13.5%
all 130 -4.3% -13.4% 26% 9% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 9% -11.5%
10% -21.7% 9% -20.0%
15% -29.2% 8% -27.7%
20% -36.2% 4% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,268) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$32 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$799
Realized−$2,552
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses34 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage149d
Avg bet$904
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $581 $581 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 100¢ 99¢ $218 $218 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $246 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,069 −$3 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $783 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $946 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,970 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,468 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,756 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $356 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $631 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $708 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $1,361 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $4,203 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,828 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $3,205 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $844 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $283 +$1 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $385 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $280 +$1 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,493 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,984 −$3 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,086 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $2,753 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,929 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $923 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,656 −$3 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $138 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $2,514 −$3 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $132 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $218 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $246 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $246 3h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $581 3d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $739 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $740 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $708 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $709 6d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $976 7d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $977 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $782 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $783 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $945 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $946 8d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $689 8d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $690 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $784 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $785 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $898 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $900 13d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $618 16d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $619 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $718 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $719 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $677 17d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $679 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $805 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $806 17d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $615 19d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $615 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $798.77 · official $798.77 (match) · 405 history records