Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22ea…a349 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$4
other 11% −$1
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.5% -9.9% 29% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 16 +0.8% -8.8% 44% 6% -8.8%
≤90d 18 +0.6% -9.0% 39% 6% -9.0%
all 35 +0.1% -9.4% 51% 6% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 6% -9.1%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage462d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 67¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $46 −$1 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $46 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $41 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $42 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $93 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $28 +$4 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $40 +$3 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 24 $36 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $41 −$1 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $22 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Aug 10 $9 $0 +4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 01 $8 $0 -1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $8 −$3 -35%
Will Bayern Munich vs. Auckland City end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum above $2,800 on May 30? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18? Apr 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 19 $11 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $43 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $45 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $46 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $3 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $43 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $46 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $42 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $41 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $29 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $29 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $14 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $27 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $17 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $25 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $46 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $46 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.88 · official $42.88 (match) · 129 history records