Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22e9…1682 sports 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,451 (-21%) realized −$5,448 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate54%50W / 43L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$691
7 days−$187
14 days−$179
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$5,091
politics 25% −$132
other 16% −$183
crypto 2% −$31
finance 1% +$1
world 1% −$55
tech 1% +$9
economics 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -22.5% -29.9% 41% 37% -14.6%
≤30d 39 -13.9% -22.1% 54% 36% -13.3%
≤90d 55 -10.0% -18.6% 55% 35% -59.2%
all 93 -13.5% -21.7% 54% 26% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 26% -29.0%
10% -29.2% 17% -35.8%
15% -36.1% 16% -42.0%
20% -42.3% 13% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$214 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized−$5,448
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses50 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions11
Markets (closed)93 / 104
History coverage256d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $60 $60 −$1 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $47 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? No 91¢ 90¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? No 88¢ 88¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 52¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 81¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? No 65¢ 66¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 30¢ 30¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 95¢ 86¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $35 +$6 +17%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $407 +$524 +129%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $311 +$193 +62%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $53 +$50 +93%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $37 +$4 +12%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $130 −$109 -84%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -99%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 −$34 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $519 −$8 -2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $52 +$53 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $285 +$135 +47%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $28 +$72 +262%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $219 −$215 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $217 −$214 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$53 +105%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $72 +$33 +46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $49 −$49 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $521 −$515 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 12 $141 +$5 +3%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $82 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $40 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 02 $88 +$6 +7%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $30 +$20 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on May 26? May 26 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 25? May 25 $10 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $11 +$5 +44%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $8 +$2 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 23 $58 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 05 $35 −$35 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 01 $18 +$2 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? May 01 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $35 +$1 +2%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 06 $38 −$38 -100%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $19 +$1 +6%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Mar 29 $3 +$7 +212%
Will There is Such a People (ITN) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bu Mar 28 $158 −$124 -78%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March? Mar 28 $5 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 28 $8 +$2 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 88¢ $36 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 91¢ $37 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY No 65¢ $14 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 85¢ $35 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $9 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $11 16h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $9 16h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $10 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $7 16h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 89¢ $37 16h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 16h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 16h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $13 16h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 63¢ $13 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $17 16h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $25 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $61 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $62 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $62 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $62 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $62 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $62 19h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $14 20h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $34 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 25h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $14 25h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.89 · official $296.90 (match) · 393 history records