Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:31:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22e7…c6f3 crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-4%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate66%29W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$34
crypto 32% +$1
world 28% $0
other 5% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 19 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 0% -9.5%
all 44 -3.1% -12.3% 66% 2% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 2% -13.0%
10% -20.7% 0% -21.3%
15% -28.4% 0% -28.9%
20% -35.4% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses29 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage145d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $126 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 10? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 9? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 1? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 31? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 26? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 25? Mar 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on March 24? Mar 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 21? Mar 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 19? Mar 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on March 16? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 14? Mar 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 10? Mar 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on March 9? Mar 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 8? Mar 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on March 7? Mar 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 6? Mar 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $39 −$4 -10%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 05 $19 −$4 -20%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 04 $29 −$4 -12%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 03 $35 −$4 -11%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 02 $32 −$4 -12%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $39 −$4 -10%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $29 −$4 -12%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $28 −$4 -12%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $28 +$4 +14%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $37 −$4 -10%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $25 −$4 -14%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 25 $28 −$4 -14%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $26 −$4 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $2 54m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $2 55m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $0 58m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 87¢ $52 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $124 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 87¢ $122 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $124 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $174 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 68d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 69d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $13 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $12 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $12 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $10 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $12 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $10 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $11 86d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $14 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $11 88d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $14 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $13 92d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $14 92d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $12 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records