Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:10:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
22 0x22e6…d967 tech 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%16W / 1L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 39% +$2
other 24% $0
sports 23% +$26
economics 9% +$2
crypto 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 17 +1.7% -8.0% 94% 6% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 6% -8.0%
10% -16.8% 6% -16.8%
15% -24.8% 6% -24.8%
20% -32.2% 6% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.95 per $1 lost it wins $7.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses16 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage223d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $216 $216 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 20 $215 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? May 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 13 $71 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 13 $84 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 27 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 22 $167 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 05 $25 +$22 +90%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$215 on the final day of trading of the w Mar 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $210? Mar 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 2 above $7.00? Mar 03 $50 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $163 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 28 $6 −$4 -67%
UMass vs. Ohio Nov 19 $192 +$2 +1%
Cowboys vs. Raiders Nov 18 $190 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $216 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 98¢ $216 39d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $215 44d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 99¢ $76 75d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 76d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $75 76d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 76d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 76d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 100¢ $60 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $84 99d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 99d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $66 99d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $5 99d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 78¢ $47 116d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $167 117d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$215 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $7 142d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 2 above $7.00? BUY No 100¢ $50 142d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $210? BUY No 100¢ $50 142d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 182d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $163 196d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 196d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 41¢ $25 221d
UMass vs. Ohio SELL Ohio 100¢ $194 221d
UMass vs. Ohio BUY Ohio 99¢ $192 222d
Cowboys vs. Raiders BUY Cowboys 99¢ $190 223d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.26 · official $216.26 (match) · 36 history records