Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22e4…8d42 crypto 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$26 (+4%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%124W / 119L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day39.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days+$18
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$14
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 -1.2% -10.6% 51% 50% -6.2%
≤30d 243 -1.2% -10.6% 51% 51% -7.2%
≤90d 243 -1.2% -10.6% 51% 51% -7.2%
all 243 -1.2% -10.6% 51% 51% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 51% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 49% -16.0%
15% -27.0% 46% -24.2%
20% -34.1% 42% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses124 / 119
Open positions0
Markets (closed)243 / 243
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day39.9
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 243 Trades
no open positions (116 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 420 history records