Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:23:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x22e4…ef1c
world · 100 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$68,368 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$81,979 · open −$8,672
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$224,398
Realized+$81,979
Unrealized−$8,672
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses56 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions47
Markets (closed)80 / 100
History coverage75d
Avg bet$19,844
Trades / day44.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 47 History 80 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,516
7 days+$35,549
14 days+$52,301
30 days+$62,043
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $44,390 $44,707 +$318 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 79¢ 74¢ $33,907 $31,673 −$2,233 (-7%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 99¢ $31,170 $31,452 +$281 (+1%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 80¢ 74¢ $34,306 $31,381 −$2,925 (-9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 81¢ $30,481 $31,373 +$892 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 96¢ 99¢ $11,112 $11,511 +$398 (+4%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $9,122 $9,845 +$723 (+8%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $7,278 $7,405 +$127 (+2%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 85¢ 88¢ $6,442 $6,631 +$189 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 71¢ 52¢ $4,960 $3,675 −$1,285 (-26%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 47¢ $3,500 $2,350 −$1,150 (-33%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 86¢ $2,100 $2,161 +$61 (+3%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2,002 $1,725 −$277 (-14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 70¢ 38¢ $2,764 $1,529 −$1,235 (-45%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day? No 92¢ 98¢ $925 $983 +$58 (+6%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 55¢ 32¢ $1,650 $975 −$675 (-41%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? No 83¢ 93¢ $830 $926 +$96 (+12%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 71¢ 80¢ $710 $805 +$95 (+13%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 26¢ 52¢ $393 $786 +$393 (+100%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $1,064 $554 −$510 (-48%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 76¢ 80¢ $413 $438 +$26 (+6%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? Yes 24¢ 36¢ $287 $417 +$129 (+45%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ $978 $226 −$751 (-77%)
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Yes 51¢ 28¢ $362 $195 −$167 (-46%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes $112 $132 +$20 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $3 +$2 +45%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $50,966 +$1,033 +2%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $18,467 +$4,481 +24%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $142,334 +$20,420 +14%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $52,643 +$4,700 +9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $251 +$22 +9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $7 +$1 +8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,596 +$63 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $195 +$12 +6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $165 +$4 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1,037 +$144 +14%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7,481 +$1,594 +21%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $45,672 +$10,641 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $13,039 −$1,629 -12%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $10 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $6,544 −$5,939 -91%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 04 $4 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 04 $4 $0 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $143,826 +$1,174 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $83,297 +$928 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $5,551 +$2,035 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50,021 +$11,800 +24%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? Jun 01 $1,862 +$138 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $457 +$43 +9%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $231 +$1 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $2,523 +$29 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $3,833 +$583 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $4,980 +$20 +0%
Claude 4.8 released by July 31? May 28 $930 +$70 +8%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 May 28 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 May 28 $39 −$17 -42%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $18,807 −$17,283 -92%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $11,198 +$288 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $83,786 +$15,182 +18%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 25 $20,280 −$280 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $3,200 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 24 $1,908 −$1,908 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 24 $1,110 −$260 -23%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 22 $199 −$157 -79%
Chirayu Rana sued? May 20 $67,089 +$14,107 +21%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 09 $46,320 +$8,680 +19%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $67,150 +$22,850 +34%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $182 +$60 +33%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $1,710 −$82 -5%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 01 $63,216 +$852 +1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 01 $91,604 +$6,427 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026? May 01 $80 +$920 +1150%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 01 $35,079 −$32,396 -92%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $48,630 +$70 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 45% +$20,908
politics 32% +$59,093
other 11% −$11,187
crypto 7% +$1,175
tech 3% +$2,988
economics 2% +$318
sports 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 73¢ $148 13m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $9,115 27m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $0 27m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $7,800 36m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $13,565 45m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 73¢ $1,133 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $2,282 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $22 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $920 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 3h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 3h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 4h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $2,686 4h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 98¢ $462 5h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 98¢ $10,661 5h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 98¢ $2,769 5h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $144 6h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $112 6h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $90 6h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $112 6h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $150 6h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $359 6h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $38 6h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $39 6h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 6h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $229 6h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $438 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.7% -5.3% 88% 38% -0.1%
≤30d 41 -5.6% -14.6% 76% 27% -2.9%
≤90d 80 +7.0% -3.2% 70% 30% -5.2%
all 80 +7.0% -3.2% 70% 30% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover44.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.2% 30% -5.2%
10% -12.5% 14% -14.3%
15% ← realistic here -20.9% 8% -22.6%
20% -28.7% 4% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224,398.19 · official $224,402.36 (match) · 3500 history records