Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:17:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
22 0x22dd…33c0 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 637d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized −$175 · open +$178
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%24W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$671now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$226
sports 8% −$7
politics 7% −$31
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 11 -18.0% -25.8% 55% 55% -4.7%
all 45 -18.6% -26.4% 53% 53% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 53% -9.5%
10% -33.4% 53% -18.2%
15% -39.9% 36% -26.1%
20% -45.8% 18% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$20 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

637d coverage
Net worth$671
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$178
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses24 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage637d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 80¢ $493 $671 +$178 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $107 +$49 +46%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-09? Apr 10 $18 +$6 +32%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 +$8 +76%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $29 +$14 +49%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $22 +$7 +32%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $17 +$5 +30%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-28? Feb 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? Feb 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Superform FDV above $100M one day after launch? Feb 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch? Feb 12 $78 −$78 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-01-29? Jan 30 $52 +$13 +25%
SSC Napoli vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Jan 29 $5 +$4 +72%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 17 $43 +$15 +35%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-31? Sep 01 $30 +$13 +43%
Will PSG beat Chelsea? Jul 14 $5 −$5 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Real Madrid (To Advance) Jul 10 $10 +$9 +85%
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Bayern (To Advance) Jul 05 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 02 $11 +$8 +69%
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Nov 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? Nov 10 $100 +$47 +47%
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden? Nov 07 $50 +$14 +29%
Will Bayern Munich beat Benfica? Nov 07 $98 +$26 +27%
Will Joe Rogan announce he is voting for Trump? Nov 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Macon, GA rally? Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Peanut" or "Squirrel" during Macon, GA rally? Nov 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-03? Nov 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Man City win on 2024-11-02? Nov 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-02? Nov 02 $50 +$20 +41%
Will JD Vance say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Joe Rogan podcast? Nov 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Leicester win on 2024-10-25? Oct 31 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Lyon beat Besiktas? Oct 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Porto beat Hoffenheim? Oct 25 $47 +$24 +52%
Will Monaco beat Red Star Belgrade Oct 24 $106 +$37 +35%
Will AC Milan beat Club Brugge? Oct 24 $106 +$48 +45%
Will Donald Trump say "Taylor Swift" during his Uniondale rally? Sep 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $271 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $228 1h
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? SELL No 100¢ $63 48d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY No 63¢ $40 50d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 68¢ $107 53d
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 67¢ $44 65d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $12 67d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? BUY Yes 75¢ $11 68d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-09? BUY No 75¢ $18 69d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 69d
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 66¢ $12 70d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 70d
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 70¢ $15 71d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22? BUY No 71¢ $10 88d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-19? BUY No 67¢ $29 90d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $22 91d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $17 92d
Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 31¢ $18 127d
Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 68¢ $60 130d
Superform FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 130d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-01-29? BUY Yes 80¢ $52 139d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 141d
SSC Napoli vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $5 141d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-28? BUY No 67¢ $10 141d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 141d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 141d
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY Yes $1 188d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Makhachev 74¢ $43 214d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-31? BUY No 70¢ $30 290d
Will PSG beat Chelsea? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 339d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $670.82 · official $670.82 (match) · 94 history records