Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22dd…3f95 crypto 1394 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$3,863 (+7%) realized −$10,263 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate65%1077W / 582L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day76.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,560
7 days−$9,560
14 days−$9,913
30 days−$10,279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$708
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 347 -93.5% -94.1% 5% 5% -97.3%
≤30d 1598 -18.6% -26.4% 64% 60% -25.2%
≤90d 1659 -18.1% -25.9% 65% 61% -24.7%
all 1659 -18.1% -25.9% 65% 61% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.9% 61% -24.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.0% 23% -31.9%
15% -39.4% 11% -38.5%
20% -45.4% 6% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$32 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,263
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses1077 / 582
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1659 / 1394
History coverage31d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day76.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1659 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $398 −$398 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $13 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $13 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $13 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $12 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $8 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $13 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $9 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $9 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $8 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records