Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
22 0x22db…190f world 289 markets active 5h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$80,003 (+43%) realized +$77,063 · open +$2,940
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate77%202W / 60L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$649per market
Trades / day67.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$22,704now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$12,043
politics 26% +$3,235
other 19% +$4,344
economics 1% +$407
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% +$57
tech 0% +$77
finance 0% −$33
culture 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +25.8% +13.9% 72% 32% -1.8%
≤30d 162 +18.2% +6.9% 67% 35% -5.4%
≤90d 262 +37.8% +24.7% 77% 37% +0.0%
all 262 +37.8% +24.7% 77% 37% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.7% 37% +0.0%
10% +12.8% 26% -9.6%
15% ← realistic here +1.9% 19% -18.3%
20% -8.1% 15% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$539) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +58% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$193 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$22,704
Realized+$77,063
Unrealized+$2,940
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses202 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions36
Markets (closed)262 / 289
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$649
Trades / day67.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 55¢ 87¢ $6,540 $10,273 +$3,734 (+57%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 70¢ $3,580 $3,525 −$55 (-2%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 24¢ 61¢ $477 $1,229 +$752 (+158%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 37¢ 76¢ $486 $981 +$496 (+102%)
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? No 82¢ 94¢ $742 $852 +$109 (+15%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $544 $593 +$49 (+9%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $514 $531 +$17 (+3%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 80¢ 92¢ $378 $433 +$54 (+14%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $343 $419 +$76 (+22%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $369 $396 +$27 (+7%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by August 31? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $352 $374 +$22 (+6%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 12¢ $991 $346 −$645 (-65%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $348 $324 −$23 (-7%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 89¢ 94¢ $301 $318 +$17 (+6%)
Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 76¢ $346 $308 −$37 (-11%)
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? No 63¢ 66¢ $250 $262 +$12 (+5%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $210 $209 −$1 (-1%)
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $164 $174 +$10 (+6%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 35¢ 34¢ $175 $167 −$7 (-4%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 61¢ 89¢ $104 $152 +$48 (+46%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 38¢ 18¢ $285 $131 −$154 (-54%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $131 $118 −$12 (-9%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 26¢ 94¢ $30 $108 +$78 (+260%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 50¢ 34¢ $150 $103 −$46 (-31%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 29¢ 67¢ $37 $86 +$49 (+130%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 15 $134 −$134 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $342 +$2,240 +654%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $67 +$61 +92%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $53 +$47 +89%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $1,830 −$1,490 -81%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $242 +$58 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $428 −$255 -60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $181 −$125 -69%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 12 $48 −$34 -72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $220 −$220 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $705 −$213 -30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $138 −$44 -32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $716 −$595 -83%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 12 $47 −$15 -32%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $342 +$30 +9%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $130 −$36 -28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $44 +$2 +4%
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31? Jun 10 $35 +$10 +29%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? Jun 10 $35 +$15 +42%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $49 +$1 +2%
New "The Boys" episode released by May 31? Jun 10 $69 +$1 +2%
Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31? Jun 10 $8 +$87 +1054%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 10 $162 +$67 +42%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $146 +$4 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 10 $696 +$200 +29%
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? Jun 10 $196 +$4 +2%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? Jun 10 $244 +$6 +3%
Will Trump say "Rabbit" or "Bunny" in May? Jun 10 $18 +$1 +8%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 10 $288 +$12 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 10 $379 +$21 +6%
Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31? Jun 10 $574 +$172 +30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $436 +$3 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 10 $430 +$20 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 10 $466 +$21 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $489 +$10 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $420 +$180 +43%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 10 $539 +$70 +13%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $574 +$46 +8%
Don Lemon charges dropped? Jun 10 $596 +$54 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 10 $1,266 +$106 +8%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 10 $1,151 −$58 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $1,679 +$816 +49%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 10 $1,844 +$113 +6%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 10 $1,367 +$151 +11%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 10 $3,028 +$141 +5%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $1,679 +$71 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 10 $2,172 +$231 +11%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Jun 10 $6,247 +$1,024 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $849 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $829 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $160 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $78 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $397 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $243 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $167 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $138 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $49 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $49 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $13 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $157 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $417 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $829 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $524 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $104 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $82 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $151 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $2 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $1 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $2 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $710 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $161 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $1,924 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $11 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $181 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $44 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $298 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,704.32 · official $22,704.39 (match) · 3500 history records