Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:11:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22d9…8348 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 379d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$2
other 22% −$2
politics 5% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 17% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 20 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 20 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
all 39 +1.1% -8.5% 36% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.3% 3% -18.2%
15% -25.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

379d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage379d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $46 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $147 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $45 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $11 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $36 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $44 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $32 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $46 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 24 $1 $0 -46%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 23 $16 $0 -2%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 21 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $16 $0 -1%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 19 $25 $0 +1%
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files? Jun 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 17 $24 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Sungjae Im win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 13 $24 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13? Jun 13 $24 −$1 -2%
Starmer out before July? Jun 11 $24 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 10 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $45 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $46 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $17 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $43 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $43 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $47 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $49 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $32 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $16 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $49 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $45 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $30 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $14 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $44 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records