Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:23:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22d3…5e3a other 281 markets active 1h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18,133 (-3%) realized −$15,249 · open −$2,884
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%120W / 126L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,560per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$68,627now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$732
7 days+$732
14 days+$72
30 days−$44,381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$65,599
politics 14% −$86,253
culture 7% −$1,971
economics 5% +$1,321
sports 3% +$3,399
crypto 2% +$2,450
world 1% −$3,136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +57.0% +42.0% 100% 100% +42.0%
≤30d 42 -79.7% -81.7% 12% 5% -53.7%
≤90d 76 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 42% -21.8%
all 246 +0.7% -8.9% 49% 38% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 38% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 27% -20.2%
15% -25.5% 20% -27.9%
20% -32.8% 16% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$2,196) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,497 vs −$1,563 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$68,627
Realized−$15,249
Unrealized−$2,884
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses120 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions35
Markets (closed)246 / 281
History coverage601d
Avg bet$2,560
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 19¢ 20¢ $11,273 $11,653 +$380 (+3%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 90¢ $7,501 $7,760 +$259 (+3%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 69¢ $5,795 $5,631 −$164 (-3%)
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 90¢ $4,524 $4,763 +$239 (+5%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 69¢ $4,966 $4,744 −$222 (-4%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 34¢ $5,772 $4,443 −$1,329 (-23%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 62¢ $4,134 $4,271 +$137 (+3%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 78¢ $3,904 $3,820 −$85 (-2%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 36¢ $3,878 $3,517 −$361 (-9%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 44¢ $2,659 $2,469 −$190 (-7%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 24¢ $2,509 $2,078 −$431 (-17%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 52¢ $2,412 $2,024 −$388 (-16%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 74¢ $1,111 $1,183 +$71 (+6%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 52¢ $985 $1,035 +$50 (+5%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 60¢ $947 $955 +$8 (+1%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 66¢ $779 $942 +$163 (+21%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 49¢ $1,104 $793 −$310 (-28%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 93¢ $703 $703 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 76¢ $656 $668 +$12 (+2%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 93¢ $447 $632 +$185 (+41%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $528 $533 +$5 (+1%)
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 57¢ $553 $505 −$48 (-9%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 54¢ $534 $492 −$41 (-8%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 12¢ $658 $445 −$213 (-32%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 40¢ $434 $439 +$5 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,284 +$732 +57%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-5.5) Jun 17 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 14 $646 −$629 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $140 +$14 +10%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4,386 +$275 +6%
Spread: CD Los Chankas (-2.5) May 29 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jamshedpur FC win on 2026-05-21? May 29 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards? May 29 $126 −$126 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 29 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awa May 29 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 29 $658 −$658 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? May 29 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Cyprus be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Perfectly a Strangeness win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98 May 29 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 29 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? May 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? May 29 $263 −$263 -100%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 29 $669 −$669 -100%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 29 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship? May 29 $944 −$944 -100%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 29 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 29 $495 −$495 -100%
Will Albania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 29 $244 −$244 -100%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 29 $490 −$490 -100%
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 29 $1,688 −$1,688 -100%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 29 $2,091 −$2,091 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? May 29 $1,662 −$656 -40%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 29 $1,762 −$1,762 -100%
Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 29 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 29 $1,814 −$1,814 -100%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 29 $4,674 −$4,674 -100%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 29 $226 −$226 -100%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 29 $2,459 −$2,459 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 29 $15,282 −$15,282 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? May 29 $11,432 +$16,559 +145%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? May 29 $9,696 −$9,696 -100%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 29 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 29 $228 −$228 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? May 29 $15,195 −$4,580 -30%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $9,314 −$9,219 -99%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 19 $15,673 +$3,114 +20%
Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $152 +$20 +13%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $161 +$63 +39%
Will Czechia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $273 +$17 +6%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $195 +$105 +54%
Will Belgium come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $248 +$55 +22%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $377 +$147 +39%
Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $398 +$215 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $559 1h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $162 1h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 25¢ $513 1h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 20¢ $96 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $2,906 1h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $442 22h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 25¢ $520 22h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $2,827 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $1,797 4d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $339 4d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $339 4d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $339 4d
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $401 4d
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $559 4d
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $109 4d
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $178 4d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 20¢ $213 4d
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $125 4d
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $326 4d
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $164 5d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $86 5d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $0 5d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $1 5d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $19 5d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $1 5d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $0 5d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 59¢ $267 5d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $0 5d
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $282 5d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68,626.76 · official $68,628.35 (match) · 3041 history records