Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22d2…b345 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$48 (-43%) realized −$47 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%8W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$33
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$9
crypto 24% −$20
politics 16% −$17
world 7% −$3
sports 4% $0
tech 2% −$1
finance 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-45.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -43.3% -48.7% 32% 32% -53.7%
≤30d 31 -39.8% -45.5% 26% 23% -53.9%
≤90d 31 -39.8% -45.5% 26% 23% -53.9%
all 31 -39.8% -45.5% 26% 23% -53.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.5% 23% -53.9%
10% -50.7% 23% -58.3%
15% -55.5% 16% -62.3%
20% -59.9% 10% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses8 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)31 / 38
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 61¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No 3¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-54%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 43¢ 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +35%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -73%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -63%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +172%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jun 10 $2 $0 -6%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -1%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$1 -20%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 18h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 26h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 4d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $1 4d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $4 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 4d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $4 4d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $3 4d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $3 5d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $5 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 5d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY No 3¢ $1 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.63 · official $8.63 (match) · 72 history records