Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22d2…82d7 sports 821 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17,006 (-16%) realized −$16,956 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%333W / 772L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day53.2pace
Fees−$1,081est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$734now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,894
7 days−$12,896
14 days−$12,314
30 days−$9,207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$4,204
other 21% −$699
world 0% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 362 -60.6% -64.3% 11% 10% -58.9%
≤30d 480 -44.5% -49.8% 20% 16% -28.8%
≤90d 1105 -19.6% -27.3% 30% 26% -24.3%
all 1105 -19.6% -27.3% 30% 26% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.3% 26% -24.3%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 20% -31.6%
15% -40.6% 18% -38.2%
20% -46.4% 15% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$58 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$734
Realized−$16,956
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses333 / 772
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1,081
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1105 / 821
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$130
Trades / day53.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 14¢ 30¢ $110 $224 +$115 (+104%)
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Lucio Ratti 69¢ 74¢ $191 $204 +$14 (+7%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Under 57¢ 72¢ $111 $141 +$30 (+27%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 48¢ 42¢ $96 $85 −$11 (-11%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 40¢ 38¢ $76 $74 −$2 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage G2 Ares 28¢ 2¢ $55 $5 −$50 (-91%)
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs x5 Gaming 28¢ 0¢ $146 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu Jun 15 $198 −$183 -92%
Will Palermo FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO3) - FERJEE In House Play Jun 15 $99 −$85 -86%
Will Querétaro FC vs. Club Necaxa end in a draw? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: VfB eSports vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - Prime League Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs Voca (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group St Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Tallahassee: Daniil Glinka vs Stefan Dostanic Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 15 $14 −$67 -492%
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-03-21? Jun 15 $65 −$66 -102%
Naples: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 15 $18 −$4 -21%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - EMEA Masters Pla Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Copa Colsanitas, Qualification: Miriana Tona vs Lia Karatancheva Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico City: Andres Martin vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 Jun 15 $162 −$162 -100%
Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $21 +$55 +257%
Will Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw? Jun 15 $342 −$342 -100%
Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-04-07? Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Will RKS Raków Częstochowa win on 2026-03-19? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kawasaki Frontale vs. Kashima Antlers end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 −$9 -59%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-03-14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-03-21? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Perth Glory FC (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Utah vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Penguins vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Real Oviedo vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Porto vs. FC Famalicão end in a draw? Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
New York City FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Bebop (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 P Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Ma Jun 15 $16 −$9 -54%
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Nashville SC end in a draw? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-05? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-04-05? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Viktoriya Tomova vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenko Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open, Qualification: Yue Yuan vs Kayla Day Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Pl Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-03-28? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bucaramanga: Samuel Linde vs Christopher Li Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-04? Jun 15 $124 −$124 -100%
Miami Open: Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek Jun 15 $188 −$188 -100%
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 15 $16 +$1 +4%
Sao Leopoldo: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 2m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $10 2m
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 70¢ $140 8m
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 72¢ $32 13m
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 56¢ $10 28m
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 56¢ $10 29m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 42¢ $2 34m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 13¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 13¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 13¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 13¢ $12 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 13¢ $6 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 13¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 14¢ $11 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 14¢ $29 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 14¢ $17 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 4¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 4¢ $8 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 16¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 16¢ $31 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 33¢ $38 2h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Lindorfitos 70¢ $31 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Vera Zvonareva 79¢ $130 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Vera Zvonareva 79¢ $23 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY G2 Ares 28¢ $55 2h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 22¢ $44 2h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 28¢ $56 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 95¢ $65 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 95¢ $17 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $734.27 · official $734.27 (match) · 3500 history records