trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will a player representing Egypt be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22? | Yes | 82¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Crash" be the top global Netflix movie this week? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M | Jun 14 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont | Jun 14 | $4 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 14? | May 24 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Ap | May 24 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? | May 24 | $4 | $0 | +10% |
| Will the South Australian Labor Party win the most seats in the next S | Apr 13 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 13 | $2 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | Apr 13 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Mar 16 | $3 | $0 | +16% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | Mar 16 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi | Feb 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 21 | $3 | $0 | +5% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Feb 21 | $3 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? | Feb 21 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will no CEO be announced in 2025? | Jan 15 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 7? | Dec 07 | $4,704 | +$10 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 7? | Dec 07 | $3,528 | +$5 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? | Dec 06 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 27? | Dec 06 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 100% | 0% | -7.8% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +2.8% | -7.0% | 100% | 0% | -5.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +3.2% | -6.6% | 100% | 0% | -6.2% |
| all | 20 | -2.0% | -11.4% | 95% | 5% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.4% | 5% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -19.8% | 0% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -27.6% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -34.7% | 0% | -33.2% |