Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
22 0x22d0…936f other 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 436d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,598 (-7%) realized −$6,573 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate58%41W / 30L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,215per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$95
14 days−$230
30 days+$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% −$8,334
economics 25% +$878
other 21% +$1,230
tech 16% −$822
sports 6% −$575
world 5% +$977
culture 2% +$115
crypto 1% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -14.5% -22.6% 56% 56% +12.7%
≤30d 21 +14.1% +3.2% 62% 43% +10.6%
≤90d 21 +14.1% +3.2% 62% 43% +10.6%
all 71 -6.4% -15.3% 58% 27% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 27% -16.1%
10% -23.4% 17% -24.1%
15% -30.8% 13% -31.5%
20% -37.6% 11% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,730) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$479 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

436d coverage
Net worth$404
Realized−$6,573
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses41 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)71 / 75
History coverage436d
Avg bet$1,215
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $178 $176 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $84 $103 +$19 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $84 $67 −$17 (-20%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $84 $57 −$26 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $64 +$8 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$23 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $33 +$21 +62%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $99 +$104 +105%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $86 +$12 +14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $327 −$325 -99%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election Jun 04 $37 +$7 +19%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $38 +$156 +409%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $219 +$436 +199%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 03 $37 −$3 -8%
Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial Jun 03 $37 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 03 $34 $0 +1%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 03 $37 +$1 +3%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 03 $37 $0 +1%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $75 −$73 -97%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $37 −$8 -22%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 03 $37 +$8 +23%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 31 $4,999 +$311 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $2,096 +$158 +8%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $1,593 +$503 +32%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 06 $281 −$281 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $2,701 +$311 +12%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $5,820 +$231 +4%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Oct 15 $2,707 +$1,464 +54%
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? Oct 06 $810 −$810 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 01 $1,730 +$458 +26%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 23 $8,542 +$632 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $6,282 +$363 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Sep 01 $3,729 +$9 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Jul 31 $2,706 +$337 +12%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 31 $4,313 +$185 +4%
Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? Jul 13 $73 +$45 +61%
MSI Playoffs: Gen.G vs. Anyone's Legend Jul 05 $31 +$20 +64%
Earthquake 7.0 or above before August? Jul 04 $563 −$42 -8%
MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Flying Oyster Jul 04 $704 −$479 -68%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jul 03 $100 −$2 -2%
MSI Playoffs: Anyone's Legend vs. FlyQuest Jul 03 $444 +$35 +8%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 03 $500 −$56 -11%
Yoon arrested by July 15? Jul 02 $540 +$23 +4%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jul 02 $628 −$53 -8%
MSI Playoffs: Gen.G vs. G2 Jul 02 $1,706 +$129 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 30 $4,580 +$762 +17%
US recession in 2025? Jun 26 $723 −$29 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $723 −$45 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 25 $723 −$81 -11%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Jun 25 $100 −$20 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $180 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $64 32h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $18 32h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $29 32h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 32h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $33 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $99 36h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $98 36h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $327 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $86 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $86 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $86 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $86 8d
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election SELL Yes 98¢ $45 16d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 100¢ $195 16d
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El BUY Yes 29¢ $71 16d
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? SELL Yes 85¢ $34 16d
Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial SELL Yes 96¢ $38 16d
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El BUY Yes 29¢ $35 16d
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca SELL Yes 99¢ $34 16d
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El BUY Yes 30¢ $76 16d
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? SELL Yes 98¢ $38 16d
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial SELL Yes 91¢ $38 16d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 16d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? SELL Yes 71¢ $29 16d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 32¢ $46 16d
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? SELL Yes 98¢ $46 16d
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca BUY Yes 98¢ $34 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $403.64 · official $403.64 (match) · 214 history records