Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22cf…a9de sports 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$50 (+5%) realized +$55 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$658now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$56
other 3% −$12
world 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-52.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -47.3% -52.3% 31% 31% +0.6%
≤30d 16 -47.3% -52.3% 31% 31% +0.6%
≤90d 16 -47.3% -52.3% 31% 31% +0.6%
all 16 -47.3% -52.3% 31% 31% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.3% 31% +0.6%
10% -56.9% 25% -9.0%
15% -61.0% 25% -17.8%
20% -64.9% 19% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -80% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$4 · ×4.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$658
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions10
Markets (closed)16 / 26
History coverage3d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 79¢ 78¢ $600 $596 −$4 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Yes 28¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Yes 29¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Yes 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 +$4 +140%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$19 +93%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $50 +$19 +38%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $301 +$48 +16%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 22m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 22m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 24m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 26m
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $5 31m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 36¢ $5 32m
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $30 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $604 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 10¢ $10 20h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $3 20h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 20h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 20h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 21h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $20 21h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 86¢ $301 21h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $50 21h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 33¢ $1 32h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 32h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $3 32h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 47h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $10 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $657.58 · official $657.58 (match) · 32 history records