Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:18:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22ce…5e3b world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% $0
other 24% +$12
politics 5% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.0% -10.5% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 20 -0.6% -10.1% 30% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 20 -0.6% -10.1% 30% 0% -9.5%
all 31 +7.4% -2.8% 42% 3% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 3% -8.2%
10% -12.1% 3% -17.0%
15% -20.6% 3% -25.0%
20% -28.4% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.31 per $1 lost it wins $6.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage452d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $96 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $60 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $14 −$1 -6%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $35 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $68 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $32 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $62 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $63 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -7%
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? Jun 24 $1 $0 +3%
Circle IPO in 2025? Jun 08 $5 +$12 +236%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romania Apr 03 $17 $0 +1%
Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 02 $27 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $2 44m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 44m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $12 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $19 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $7 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $22 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $28 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 9¢ $0 34h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $8 41h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $22 41h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $31 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 82¢ $34 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $35 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $35 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $35 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $20 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $11 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 76¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $35 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $13 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $8 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $6 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $15 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $18 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records