Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:31:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
22 0x22cc…8f35 crypto 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$341 (+2%) realized +$342 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%89W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days−$603
14 days+$133
30 days+$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$652
other 23% −$793
sports 7% +$273
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -6.1% -15.0% 48% 45% -17.4%
≤30d 168 -1.9% -11.2% 53% 46% -8.5%
≤90d 168 -1.9% -11.2% 53% 46% -8.5%
all 168 -1.9% -11.2% 53% 46% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 46% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 41% -17.3%
15% -27.5% 36% -25.3%
20% -34.6% 33% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$46 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$342
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses89 / 79
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)168 / 172
History coverage11d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 52¢ 50¢ $55 $53 −$2 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 42¢ 50¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$22 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$19 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$36 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$45 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$27 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $111 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $30 −$15 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $113 +$16 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $22 −$18 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $71 −$50 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $48 +$23 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $78 −$10 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $43 +$41 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$6 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $91 +$26 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $45 −$21 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $12 +$8 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$14 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $45 −$36 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $27 +$18 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$46 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$45 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$5 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$27 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $24 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$12 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $70 −$68 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $36 +$32 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$17 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +90%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +50%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 +$5 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $57 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $9 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $31 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $78 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $97 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $58 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.22 · official $58.22 (match) · 394 history records