Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:06:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22ca…34fc other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% $0
world 27% −$4
politics 13% +$1
tech 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 2% $0
finance 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -9.6% -18.2% 17% 0% -12.4%
≤90d 6 -9.6% -18.2% 17% 0% -12.4%
all 34 -1.6% -11.0% 41% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage465d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $17 −$2 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 22 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $3 −$1 -43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $41 −$2 -4%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 16 $49 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 15 $14 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 04 $13 $0 +3%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 02 $2 $0 -11%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on March 28? Mar 30 $14 $0 +1%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 28 $15 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by March 31? Mar 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Mar 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 12 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $27 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $7 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $37 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $9 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $17 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $8 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $14 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $4 26h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $37 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $37 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $19 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $21 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $16 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $26 28d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 184d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 184d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? SELL No 73¢ $14 185d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? BUY No 73¢ $14 185d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? SELL No 75¢ $14 185d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? BUY No 75¢ $14 185d
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? SELL No 80¢ $14 185d
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY No 80¢ $14 185d
Eagles vs. Commanders SELL Commanders 29¢ $14 185d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.06 · official $27.06 (match) · 88 history records