Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:26:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
22 0x22c8…7a54 sports 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 765d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,354 (+12%) realized +$1,357 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$161est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$275
7 days+$1,212
14 days+$1,212
30 days+$1,212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$1,176
other 39% +$205
crypto 5% −$292
politics 4% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +22.9% +11.2% 48% 48% +2.1%
≤30d 21 +22.9% +11.2% 48% 48% +2.1%
≤90d 26 +12.2% +1.5% 38% 38% -0.2%
all 34 +8.6% -1.8% 41% 32% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 32% -0.7%
10% -11.2% 29% -10.2%
15% -19.7% 26% -18.9%
20% -27.6% 18% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$78 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

765d coverage
Net worth$335
Realized+$1,357
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$161
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage765d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-1.5) Australia 65¢ 64¢ $337 $335 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $82 −$49 -60%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $745 +$210 +28%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $215 +$443 +206%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $146 +$69 +47%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $744 −$398 -54%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $509 −$296 -58%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $305 −$18 -6%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $294 −$11 -4%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $259 −$138 -54%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $110 +$50 +46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $255 +$345 +135%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $278 −$234 -84%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $508 +$512 +101%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 −$14 -7%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $494 −$28 -6%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $234 +$300 +128%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,419 −$245 -10%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $354 +$44 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $7 −$1 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $995 +$462 +46%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $264 +$208 +79%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $253 −$20 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $380 −$19 -5%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $653 −$44 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 31 $33 −$15 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 13 $7 $0 -0%
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? Nov 07 $6 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $445 +$9 +2%
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? May 18 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $341 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes $33 36h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $82 37h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $868 38h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $694 38h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $88 38h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 40h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $215 44h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $215 44h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $146 44h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 26¢ $345 45h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $744 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 17¢ $213 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $509 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 40¢ $287 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 36¢ $282 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 26¢ $92 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 26¢ $28 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $305 4d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 36¢ $90 4d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 36¢ $204 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $91 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $167 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $160 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $110 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $600 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $44 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $1,019 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $334.53 · official $334.53 (match) · 202 history records