Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
22 0x22c7…3e23 crypto 851 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,506 (-14%) realized −$7,505 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%376W / 469L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day41.5pace
Fees−$823est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$231
7 days−$150
14 days−$1,977
30 days−$11,445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$7,004
crypto 18% −$928
other 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +6.6% -3.5% 55% 55% -12.9%
≤30d 487 -20.0% -27.6% 38% 38% -41.8%
≤90d 845 -14.1% -22.3% 44% 38% -23.5%
all 845 -14.1% -22.3% 44% 38% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 38% -23.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 35% -30.8%
15% -36.5% 31% -37.5%
20% -42.7% 30% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$66 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$7,505
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses376 / 469
Est. fees paid−$823
Open positions3
Markets (closed)845 / 851
History coverage53d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day41.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 845 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Colorado Rockies 33¢ 74¢ $49 $110 +$61 (+124%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Atlanta Braves 21¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+383%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 25¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 18 $107 +$190 +178%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$18 +73%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $27 −$26 -99%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $169 +$150 +88%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $141 −$139 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $116 −$42 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$13 +86%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $191 −$189 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $197 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$24 +228%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $59 +$62 +105%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $37 +$143 +391%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $324 +$142 +44%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $163 −$160 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $64 +$36 +57%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $48 +$102 +212%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$20 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$22 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$34 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$28 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$12 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$11 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$13 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$13 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$22 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$22 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 32¢ $7 8m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 33¢ $6 8m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 33¢ $37 8m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) SELL Atlanta Braves 99¢ $576 14m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) SELL Atlanta Braves 99¢ $297 14m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 12¢ $2 36m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 21¢ $117 37m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 21¢ $0 37m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 21¢ $1 38m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 24¢ $14 39m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 24¢ $10 39m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 40¢ $29 55m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 13¢ $21 1h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 41¢ $4 1h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 41¢ $50 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 21¢ $13 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 17¢ $1 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 27¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $25 2h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY FlyQuest 25¢ $12 2h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY FlyQuest 25¢ $3 2h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY FlyQuest 9¢ $12 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Team Evictix 100¢ $319 3h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 53¢ $169 3h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $128 5h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $12 5h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 22¢ $74 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $116 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.51 · official $110.37 (match) · 2906 history records