Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22c1…5e90 crypto 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate82%50W / 11L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$59
other 6% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +12.1% +1.4% 82% 20% +3.0%
≤30d 61 +12.1% +1.4% 82% 20% +3.0%
≤90d 61 +12.1% +1.4% 82% 20% +3.0%
all 61 +12.1% +1.4% 82% 20% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 20% +3.0%
10% ← realistic here -8.3% 16% -6.8%
15% -17.1% 10% -15.8%
20% -25.3% 7% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses50 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage2d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$57 +1074%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$13 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 17m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 31m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $11 11h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 11h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 12h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 12h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 12h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 12h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 12h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 12h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 12h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 13h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 169 history records