Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:12:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22be…0398 crypto 270 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%148W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$296
7 days−$296
14 days−$296
30 days−$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 200 -10.3% -18.9% 54% 47% -22.3%
≤30d 200 -10.3% -18.9% 54% 47% -22.3%
≤90d 201 -10.8% -19.3% 54% 47% -23.1%
all 270 -5.1% -14.1% 55% 48% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 48% -12.7%
10% -22.3% 39% -21.1%
15% -29.8% 27% -28.7%
20% -36.7% 14% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses148 / 122
Open positions0
Markets (closed)270 / 270
History coverage100d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 270 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$14 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $28 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $29 −$7 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $44 −$12 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $57 +$21 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $48 +$19 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$8 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $23 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $42 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$24 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $40 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $18 −$10 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $17 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$9 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $12 +$8 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$18 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $24 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $19 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $34 +$17 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $34 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $30 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$9 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $18 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $28 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $32 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 712 history records