Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:05:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x22be…ba43
weather · 1030 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$289 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$158 · open −$131
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$157
Realized−$158
Unrealized−$131
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses962 / 62
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1024 / 1030
History coverage44d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day71.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 1024 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$67
14 days−$82
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? No 97¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? No 97¢ 2¢ $137 $2 −$135 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 7? No 96¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 1? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on May 3? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 22? Yes 96¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 17? No 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 4? No 96¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 7? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 17? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 3? Yes 96¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 6? Yes 91¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on May 6? No 98¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 8? No 94¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 10? No 99¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 4? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 25? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3? No 97¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 24? No 96¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 24? No 98¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or higher on May 3? No 96¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$2 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 11 $109 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $48 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? Jun 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $69 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $24 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $53 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 9? Jun 09 $48 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $52 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 8? Jun 09 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 8? Jun 09 $29 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 8? Jun 09 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $110 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $145 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $42 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $66 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $95 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$289
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 70¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 70¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $38 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $49 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $48 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $48 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $101 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $49 29h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $50 29h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 29h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $50 29h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $49 37h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $107 37h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 37h
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $99 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +0.4% -9.2% 94% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 526 -0.3% -9.8% 95% 1% -9.6%
≤90d 1024 -0.2% -9.7% 94% 2% -9.8%
all 1024 -0.2% -9.7% 94% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover71.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 2% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.75 · official $156.75 (match) · 3500 history records