Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22bc…289f crypto 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (128 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$198 (-5%) realized +$348 · open −$546
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%23W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day127.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$649
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (128 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-49.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -43.8% -49.2% 33% 30% -13.4%
≤30d 70 -43.8% -49.2% 33% 30% -13.4%
≤90d 70 -43.8% -49.2% 33% 30% -13.4%
all 70 -43.8% -49.2% 33% 30% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.2% 30% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -54.0% 24% -21.7%
15% -58.5% 14% -29.2%
20% -62.5% 13% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$14 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$348
Unrealized−$546
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses23 / 47
Open positions14
Markets (closed)70 / 84
History coverage2d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day127.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 62¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $318 +$49 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $320 +$68 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $308 +$69 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $204 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $131 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$13 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$11 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$10 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $68 −$29 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $53 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.61 · official $24.90 (match) · 264 history records