Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:22:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22bc…b0b2 sports 266 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,407 (-8%) realized −$1,407 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%130W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$273est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$194
7 days−$189
14 days−$902
30 days−$1,616
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$1,345
other 7% −$175
world 1% −$97
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -2.3% -11.6% 51% 50% -12.1%
≤30d 266 -12.5% -20.9% 49% 45% -18.2%
≤90d 266 -12.5% -20.9% 49% 45% -18.2%
all 266 -12.5% -20.9% 49% 45% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 45% -18.2%
10% -28.4% 42% -26.0%
15% -35.4% 34% -33.2%
20% -41.7% 27% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$46 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,407
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses130 / 136
Est. fees paid−$273
Open positions0
Markets (closed)266 / 266
History coverage29d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 266 Trades
no open positions (118 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $79 +$63 +80%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $101 +$91 +90%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $15 +$9 +60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $102 +$137 +135%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $40 +$18 +45%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $145 −$4 -2%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $199 +$46 +23%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $100 −$99 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $98 −$97 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $102 +$95 +94%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $100 +$62 +62%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $48 −$47 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $49 +$134 +273%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $203 +$65 +32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $59 −$58 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $122 +$38 +31%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $86 +$53 +62%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $58 +$28 +48%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $43 −$42 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $28 −$28 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$47 +231%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$60 +118%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $28 +$54 +197%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $112 −$110 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $42 +$6 +14%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $101 +$9 +9%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $27 −$27 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $27 +$20 +73%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $21 +$21 +97%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $25 +$16 +64%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$76 +152%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $90 +$61 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $130 +$159 +122%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $51 +$42 +82%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $73 +$32 +43%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $99 −$97 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $234 −$65 -28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $141 −$85 -60%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $19 +$30 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo SELL TDK 93¢ $142 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 51¢ $79 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 18¢ $14 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $101 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 53¢ $51 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 99¢ $25 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 61¢ $15 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $239 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $102 16h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 44¢ $51 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 48¢ $58 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $40 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 77¢ $141 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 78¢ $145 20h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $245 21h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 81¢ $199 21h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 51¢ $100 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 74¢ $98 22h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $197 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 45¢ $102 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $61 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $163 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $100 26h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $48 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $169 36h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $99 39h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $203 39h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 26¢ $49 39h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 17¢ $51 39h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $59 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 489 history records