Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
22 0x22b8…4132 other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$345 (+7%) realized +$279 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%27W / 28L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit2%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$101
14 days−$297
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$93
crypto 2% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +31.9% +19.3% 25% 25% -44.8%
≤30d 29 +24.7% +12.8% 48% 34% -9.3%
≤90d 55 +27.1% +15.0% 49% 40% -8.3%
all 55 +27.1% +15.0% 49% 40% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.0% 40% -8.3%
10% +4.0% 31% -17.1%
15% -6.1% 24% -25.1%
20% -15.3% 18% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$52 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized+$279
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses27 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage47d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit2%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $142 $169 +$27 (+19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $100 $139 +$39 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $94 −$67 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $102 −$85 -83%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $23 +$81 +358%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $39 −$30 -75%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $227 −$227 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $78 −$35 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $35 −$19 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $126 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $56 +$233 +420%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $85 +$23 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $107 −$56 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $87 −$74 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $52 −$42 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $51 −$5 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $72 +$9 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $54 +$12 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $70 +$20 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $217 +$11 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 01 $35 −$27 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $128 +$11 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $5 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $109 +$51 +47%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $89 +$27 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $77 −$23 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $53 +$321 +606%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $80 −$77 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $249 +$18 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $66 +$74 +112%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $6 +$3 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $103 −$15 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $124 −$39 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $48 −$9 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $58 −$51 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $52 +$101 +193%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $419 −$136 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $21 +$83 +395%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $222 +$13 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $42 −$25 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $101 +$12 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $135 +$34 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $52 +$18 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 15 $7 +$4 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $213 +$33 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $103 −$36 -35%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $51 +$84 +163%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $52 +$183 +350%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $148 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $26 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $17 6d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $104 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $94 6d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 6d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 6d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $38 6d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $83 6d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 6d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $43 8d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $23 8d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $116 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 9d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 9d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $47 9d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 9d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $126 9d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 10d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $57 10d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 10d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 10d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $69 10d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 10d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.70 · official $315.56 · 329 history records