Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x22b8…8b13
crypto · 1101 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,668 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,598 · open +$39
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$156
Realized+$1,598
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses427 / 572
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions13
Markets (closed)999 / 1101
History coverage19d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day165.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 13 History 999 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$702
7 days−$362
14 days+$796
30 days+$1,598
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 24¢ $23 $44 +$21 (+88%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Ben Shelton 44¢ 50¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+12%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 63¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+11%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 57¢ 65¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+14%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 46¢ 50¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Pakistan Super League: Lahore Qalandars vs Hyderabad Kingsmen - Toss Match Double Lahore Qalandars Winner Yes 1¢ 48¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+3149%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Yes 41¢ 35¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Pakistan Super League: Lahore Qalandars vs Hyderabad Kingsmen - Toss Match Double Draw Yes 1¢ 48¢ $0 $7 +$7 (+4750%)
Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 66¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+75%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Up 0¢ 32¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Yes 31¢ 7¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-77%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes 18¢ 4¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-78%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Michael Zheng vs Dino Prizmic Michael Zheng 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs 9INE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffs 9INE 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Rangers (-1.5) Capitals 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Maddison Inglis 1¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Paris vs. Simakin: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "Trust Me: The False Prophet" be the top US Netflix show this week? No 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Kaufland Hangry Knights vs Eintracht Spandau (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season Kaufland Hangry Knights 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Michael Zheng vs Dino Prizmic Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -101%
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs 9INE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe C Jun 13 $1 +$2 +194%
Spread: Rangers (-1.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Paris vs. Simakin: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Trust Me: The False Prophet" be the top US Netflix show this wee Jun 13 $2 −$3 -115%
LoL: Kaufland Hangry Knights vs Eintracht Spandau (BO1) - Prime League Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Guilherme Schettine score the most goals in the 2025-26 Primeira Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 -155%
Iryna Shymanovich vs. Donna Vekic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 38-39°F on April 20? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Multan Sultans vs Rawalpindi Pindiz - Team Top Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will JT Poston finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Heritage? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on April 30? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: CD Malacateco (-2.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 3PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -109%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Game 1: Any Player Quadra Kill? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Tranmere Rovers FC vs. Colchester United FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Capitals (-1.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Mega Mozzart vs. Krka Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Game 3: Ends in Daytime? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 21? Jun 13 $0 $0 -110%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Valorant: EVOPLAY vs Team Liquid Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 52% +$861
sports 29% +$1,547
other 11% +$76
politics 3% −$91
world 2% +$4
weather 2% +$57
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 577 -61.1% -64.8% 14% 14% -20.0%
≤30d 999 -0.8% -10.2% 43% 40% +1.3%
≤90d 999 -0.8% -10.2% 43% 40% +1.3%
all 999 -0.8% -10.2% 43% 40% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover165.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 40% +1.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 35% -8.4%
15% -26.7% 32% -17.2%
20% -33.9% 29% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.96 · official $156.59 (match) · 3500 history records