Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:07:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22b2…9fd4 crypto 288 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$40 (-7%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%93W / 195L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$12
sports 25% −$44
other 9% +$7
weather 8% −$44
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -13.3% -21.6% 51% 31% -19.4%
≤30d 71 -13.3% -21.6% 51% 31% -19.4%
≤90d 288 -19.2% -26.9% 32% 26% -22.3%
all 288 -19.2% -26.9% 32% 26% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 26% -22.3%
10% -33.9% 20% -29.7%
15% -40.3% 17% -36.5%
20% -46.1% 16% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses93 / 195
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)288 / 288
History coverage72d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 288 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -43%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -51%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -43%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -37%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -37%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -15%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -34%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -65%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -26%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -86%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 8m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 18m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 23m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 23m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $2 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 654 history records