trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 23 | -22.2% | -29.6% | 35% | 22% | -2.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -29.6% | 22% | -2.8% |
| 10% | -36.3% | 22% | -12.1% |
| 15% | -42.5% | 22% | -20.6% |
| 20% | -48.1% | 22% | -28.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $925 | $925 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | No | 40¢ | 36¢ | $40 | $35 | −$4 (-11%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitals vs. Hurricanes | Nov 11 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Stars vs. Senators | Nov 11 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Bucks vs. Mavericks | Nov 11 | $10 | +$8 | +82% |
| Celtics vs. Magic | Nov 10 | $13 | +$9 | +70% |
| Rockets vs. Spurs | Nov 07 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Raptors vs. Hawks | Nov 07 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Athletics vs. Red Sox | Sep 16 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Buccaneers vs. Texans | Sep 16 | $6 | +$8 | +127% |
| Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Jul 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Magdalena Biejat be the next President of Poland? | Jul 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Solana reach $220 in June? | Jul 15 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? | May 19 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? | May 19 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? | May 15 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | May 15 | $6 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | May 08 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Apr 30 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 27 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Canucks vs. Hurricanes | Jan 13 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Notre Dame vs. Penn State | Jan 10 | $109 | +$101 | +92% |
| Will Nicolae Ciucă win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | Jan 09 | $2 | −$1 | -50% |
| Thunder vs. Cavaliers | Jan 09 | $130 | +$98 | +75% |
| Who will speak more at VP Debate? | Oct 02 | $22 | −$22 | -100% |