Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22b1…910f world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% $0
other 24% $0
politics 20% −$3
sports 12% $0
culture 7% $0
economics 5% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 -0.6% -10.1% 57% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 14 -0.6% -10.1% 57% 0% -9.4%
all 38 -0.6% -10.1% 34% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage298d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $117 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $28 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $52 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $15 −$3 -21%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $28 +$3 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $36 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 13 $35 +$1 +4%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 28 $31 −$2 -8%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Aug 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 27 $12 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31? Aug 26 $9 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $30 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $30 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $30 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $8 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $22 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $4 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $26 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $30 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $8 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $21 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $19 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $18 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $22 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $7 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $29 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records