Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
22 0x22b1…e91e other 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$16
politics 33% −$13
sports 6% −$27
tech 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -3.0% -12.3% 5% 2% -9.8%
all 119 -1.2% -10.6% 8% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 4% -9.7%
10% -19.2% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×7.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)119 / 122
History coverage116d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $247 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $271 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 07 $227 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $39 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $195 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $252 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $239 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $260 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 22 $285 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $290 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $210 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $197 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $268 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $277 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 12 $282 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $511 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $211 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $253 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 28 $203 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $260 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $264 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $288 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $260 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 22 $265 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $218 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $268 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $278 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $436 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $210 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 19 $250 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $253 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $41 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 37h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 38h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $25 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 3d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 4d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 8d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 8d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $39 9d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $39 9d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 9d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 12d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 12d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $31 14d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $31 14d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $35 14d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $35 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.65 · official $97.63 (match) · 347 history records