trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 14 | $5,736 | −$2,370 | -41% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 14 | $404 | +$325 | +80% |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 14 | $279 | −$122 | -44% |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 14 | $33 | +$3 | +8% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 14 | $31 | +$2 | +8% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Jun 14 | $13,092 | +$16,001 | +122% |
| Maduro mugshot released by January 9? | Jan 06 | $62 | +$67 | +108% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 04 | $23 | −$23 | -100% |
| Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? | Jan 04 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026? | Jan 04 | $35 | −$35 | -100% |
| Kash Patel out by September 30? | Nov 30 | $220 | +$7 | +3% |
| Will Base launch a token in 2025? | Sep 16 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31? | Sep 16 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Sep 16 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? | Sep 16 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +22.3% | +10.7% | 67% | 33% | +54.4% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +22.3% | +10.7% | 67% | 33% | +54.4% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +22.3% | +10.7% | 67% | 33% | +54.4% |
| all | 15 | -30.3% | -37.0% | 40% | 20% | +51.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -37.0% | 20% | +51.1% |
| 10% | -43.0% | 20% | +36.7% |
| 15% | -48.5% | 20% | +23.5% |
| 20% | -53.6% | 20% | +11.4% |