Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
22 0x22af…bece crypto 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$196 (+2%) realized +$196 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate63%113W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$84
14 days−$84
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$159
sports 3% −$91
politics 2% −$1
other 1% −$17
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -6.6% -15.5% 44% 44% -26.1%
≤30d 27 -6.6% -15.5% 44% 44% -26.1%
≤90d 27 -6.6% -15.5% 44% 44% -26.1%
all 178 +2.9% -6.9% 63% 52% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 52% -9.2%
10% -15.8% 42% -17.9%
15% -24.0% 24% -25.8%
20% -31.4% 16% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$30 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$196
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses113 / 65
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage164d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$3 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 $0 -8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 $0 -9%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$36 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$3 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 −$15 -75%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$8 -83%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$7 +145%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$18 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $34 +$24 +70%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$2 -46%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 +$7 +145%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$13 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 09 $20 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 05 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 05 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 05 $47 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 05 $35 +$13 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 05 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 05 $31 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 03 $23 −$18 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 03 $16 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 03 $22 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 03 $17 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 03 $72 −$39 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 03 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 03 $42 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 03 $44 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 03 $29 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 03 $18 +$11 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 03 $11 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 03 $122 −$111 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 03 $22 +$12 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 03 $40 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 03 $82 +$17 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $83 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 9¢ $2 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $13 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $68 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 696 history records