Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:33:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22af…1bf9 crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (145 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$26 (+1%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate68%30W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day145.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (145 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -0.5% -10.0% 68% 57% -15.8%
≤30d 44 -0.5% -10.0% 68% 57% -15.8%
≤90d 44 -0.5% -10.0% 68% 57% -15.8%
all 44 -0.5% -10.0% 68% 57% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover145.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 57% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 45% -23.8%
15% -26.5% 36% -31.2%
20% -33.7% 27% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$41 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses30 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage1d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day145.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$16 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $70 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$24 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $307 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $216 +$128 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $129 +$87 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $103 −$25 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $76 +$16 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $61 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $71 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $82 −$20 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$12 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$12 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$11 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$7 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $52 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records