Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22ac…7409 sports 247 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,247 (-1%) realized −$140 · open −$1,107
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate83%203W / 42L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$407per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Fees−$576est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days−$145
14 days−$255
30 days−$650
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$2,973
other 6% +$198
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -3.4% -12.6% 77% 50% -12.6%
≤30d 55 -0.8% -10.2% 82% 58% -14.0%
≤90d 245 +5.0% -5.0% 83% 69% -10.7%
all 245 +5.0% -5.0% 83% 69% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 69% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 33% -19.3%
15% -22.4% 10% -27.1%
20% -30.0% 4% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$569) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$429 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$140
Unrealized−$1,107
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses203 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$576
Open positions2
Markets (closed)245 / 247
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$407
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Under 87¢ $982 $2 −$980 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $601 −$443 -74%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $396 +$61 +15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $338 +$82 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $499 +$41 +8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $367 +$135 +37%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $655 +$148 +23%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 +$8 +14%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $122 +$39 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $92 +$8 +9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $191 −$189 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $299 +$41 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $43 +$4 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $37 +$3 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $20 +$5 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $160 +$69 +43%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $146 +$35 +24%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $217 +$9 +4%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $96 +$22 +23%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $161 +$34 +21%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $373 −$372 -100%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $189 +$28 +15%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $50 +$5 +11%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $36 +$7 +20%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $268 +$75 +28%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $310 +$82 +26%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $268 +$67 +25%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 May 31 $115 −$115 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 7.5 Total Corners May 30 $188 +$56 +30%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $143 +$38 +26%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $38 +$4 +10%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 5.5 May 25 $302 +$25 +8%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 5.5 May 24 $300 −$299 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $77 +$4 +5%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 5.5 May 24 $501 +$20 +4%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5 May 24 $526 +$53 +10%
Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 5.5 May 23 $383 +$5 +1%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $85 +$15 +18%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 May 21 $899 −$760 -84%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $368 +$68 +18%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5 May 20 $143 +$20 +14%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $149 +$36 +24%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $105 +$55 +53%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 4.5 May 19 $569 +$78 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under $0 3m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 25¢ $158 7m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $100 41m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $50 41m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $48 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $501 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $50 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $28 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $32 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $22 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $66 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $107 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $50 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $165 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $9 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $5 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $3 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $17 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $17 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $20 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $6 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $0 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $26 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $26 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $26 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.35 · official $2.35 (match) · 3500 history records