Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22ab…5191 sports 1404 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$566 (-7%) realized −$566 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate65%908W / 495L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day34.8pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$65
14 days+$20
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$537
other 0% −$6
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -2.6% -11.9% 65% 61% -14.7%
≤30d 481 -0.5% -10.0% 67% 64% -11.6%
≤90d 1403 -4.0% -13.2% 65% 62% -15.6%
all 1403 -4.0% -13.2% 65% 62% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 62% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 51% -23.7%
15% -29.1% 35% -31.1%
20% -36.0% 18% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$566
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses908 / 495
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1403 / 1404
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day34.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1403 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 62¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 244 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 16 $2 +$1 +37%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $12 +$18 +148%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$4 +56%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $7 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $5 −$2 -41%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $13 +$7 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $16 +$4 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +91%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $4 +$2 +52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +118%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $13 +$7 +50%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$5 +89%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $9 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $24 +$5 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $11 +$4 +38%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 +$8 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $9 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $16 +$4 +28%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $7 +$3 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $14 +$6 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 +$5 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $4 $0 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +113%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $52 −$16 -31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -88%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $17 +$3 +20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $36 −$7 -19%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 −$4 -57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $14 +$6 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $21 +$9 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 62¢ $6 57m
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A SELL ODDIK 94¢ $3 58m
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri SELL MIBR Academy 0¢ $0 58m
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ODDIK 68¢ $2 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY MIBR Academy 68¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $6 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $4 10h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 63¢ $6 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $20 13h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $7 13h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $10 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $11 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Team Nemesis 67¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 64¢ $6 16h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C SELL 100 Thieves 99¢ $6 16h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 100¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series SELL TDK 50¢ $3 20h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $4 22h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $4 22h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C BUY 100 Thieves 83¢ $5 24h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 74¢ $7 24h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $4 24h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY TDK 83¢ $5 32h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $2 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 39¢ $4 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $11 36h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $20 36h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $13 37h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL TDK 100¢ $6 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.25 · official $6.25 (match) · 3500 history records