Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:24:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x22a4…13e5
other · 863 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,948 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,776 · open −$81
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,474
Realized−$2,776
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses198 / 634
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$905
Open positions31
Markets (closed)832 / 863
History coverage65d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day48.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 31 History 832 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$136
7 days−$292
14 days−$572
30 days−$1,633
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $169 $165 −$4 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $162 $158 −$4 (-2%)
Will William Saliba be in France's Starting 11? Yes 90¢ 91¢ $108 $109 +$1 (+0%)
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $99 $108 +$9 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLDE? No 98¢ 93¢ $98 $93 −$6 (-6%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? No 86¢ 62¢ $108 $78 −$29 (-27%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 90¢ 78¢ $78 $67 −$11 (-14%)
Will Argentina be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 86¢ $49 $52 +$3 (+7%)
Will Al Lawson win the Tallahassee mayoral election? No 80¢ 99¢ $40 $50 +$10 (+24%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? No 82¢ 81¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? No 79¢ 82¢ $40 $41 +$2 (+4%)
Will Spain be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 86¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+12%)
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? No 92¢ 75¢ $47 $38 −$9 (-18%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No 55¢ 38¢ $53 $36 −$16 (-31%)
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? No 67¢ 68¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 50¢ $37 $30 −$7 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $26 $28 +$3 (+10%)
Will Marconi Perillo win the Governor of Goiás election? No 93¢ 91¢ $23 $23 −$1 (-2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Will Qatar be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 88¢ 80¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-9%)
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 83¢ 74¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-10%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 76¢ 56¢ $18 $13 −$5 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hiroki Ito be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $23 $0 -1%
Will Ko Itakura be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Marcos Llorente be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 14 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Nathaniel Brown be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $24 −$1 -5%
Will Leroy Sané be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Luis Javier Suárez be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Jorrel Hato be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -17%
Will Aleksandar Pavlović be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -27%
Will Ousmane Dembélé be in France's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 -10%
Will Jamal Musiala be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -39%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $16 −$2 -12%
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 F Jun 13 $7 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $11 −$2 -20%
Will Collapse be named Tournament MVP at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tim Weah be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sergino Dest be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $117 −$113 -96%
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? Jun 13 $22 −$3 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Will Kim Min-jae score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will Tahith Chong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Jun 12 $19 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $351 $0 -0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$4 +270%
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 12 $85 +$2 +2%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 $0 -3%
Will Bart Verbruggen be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Will Uruguay be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group S Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will Valentín Barco be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will John Stones be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $12 $0 -2%
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 12 $18 $0 -1%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7 $0 -5%
Will Gonçalo Inácio be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 12 $71 −$1 -2%
Will Virgil van Dijk be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
Will Pedro Neto be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 12 $17 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 −$5 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
Will Haiti be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Panama be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup Jun 12 $6 $0 -3%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $18 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $122 +$6 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $70 +$30 +44%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $72 +$25 +35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 −$8 -22%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $52 +$23 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 48% −$1,042
other 17% −$623
finance 10% −$256
world 10% −$189
politics 7% −$221
tech 6% −$448
weather 2% +$23
crypto 1% −$97
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will William Saliba be in France's Starting 11? BUY Yes 90¢ $108 1m
Will Hiroki Ito be in Japan's Starting 11? SELL Yes 92¢ $23 1m
Will Ko Itakura be in Japan's Starting 11? SELL Yes 91¢ $45 2m
Will Marcos Llorente be in Spain's Starting 11? SELL Yes 76¢ $45 2m
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 67¢ $34 2m
Will Ko Itakura be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 3m
Will Marcos Llorente be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 76¢ $46 3m
Will Hiroki Ito be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY Yes 93¢ $23 3m
Will Nathaniel Brown be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL Yes 90¢ $22 8m
Will Nathaniel Brown be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY Yes 94¢ $24 10m
Will Nathan Ngoy be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 13m
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro SELL Yes 55¢ $22 21m
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro BUY Yes 61¢ $61 23m
Will Leroy Sané be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 6¢ $3 44m
Will Leroy Sané be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 6¢ $3 44m
Will Leroy Sané be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY No 6¢ $6 46m
Will Luis Javier Suárez be in Colombia's Starting 11? SELL Yes 88¢ $7 47m
Will Jorrel Hato be in Netherlands's Starting 11? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 48m
Will Luis Javier Suárez be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 48m
Will Jorrel Hato be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 49m
Will Leroy Sané be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 6¢ $6 51m
Will Aleksandar Pavlović be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 3¢ $6 52m
Will Aleksandar Pavlović be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY No 4¢ $8 53m
Will Ousmane Dembélé be in France's Starting 11? SELL No 2¢ $4 53m
Will Leroy Sané be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY No 6¢ $6 53m
Will Ousmane Dembélé be in France's Starting 11? BUY No 2¢ $5 54m
Will Nathan Ngoy be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY No 5¢ $1 1h
Will Jamal Musiala be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 2¢ $2 1h
Will David Raum be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 1h
Will Jamal Musiala be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY No 2¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -8.2% -17.0% 16% 4% -15.0%
≤30d 513 -6.4% -15.3% 23% 11% -13.0%
≤90d 832 -6.4% -15.3% 24% 13% -13.1%
all 832 -6.4% -15.3% 24% 13% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover48.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 13% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 9% -21.4%
15% -30.8% 7% -29.0%
20% -37.6% 6% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,473.73 · official $1,473.74 (match) · 3500 history records