Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
22 0x22a2…38df politics 133 markets active 2d ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 116L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$6
politics 36% −$6
sports 8% +$24
crypto 4% $0
economics 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 123 +1.3% -8.3% 9% 7% -9.1%
all 132 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 8% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 4% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 3% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×8.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 116
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage109d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $84 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $142 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $62 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $93 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $88 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $143 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $217 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $178 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $146 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $72 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $71 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $85 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $96 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $84 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $87 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $95 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $175 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $170 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $82 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $175 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $65 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 03 $69 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $78 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $80 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $79 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $77 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $246 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $71 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $178 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $383 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $92 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $258 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $91 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $85 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $78 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $195 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $175 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 2d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $16 2d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $16 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 7d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $13 7d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $13 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 9d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 17d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 17d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 18d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $93 23d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $93 24d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $88 24d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $88 25d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $72 25d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $72 25d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 25d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 26d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $90 26d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $90 28d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $82 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.99 · official $9.99 (match) · 346 history records