Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
22 0x22a0…6702 sports 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$794 (+17%) realized +$800 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%36W / 59L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$775now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days+$465
14 days+$726
30 days+$723
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$486
other 35% +$289
crypto 1% −$31
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -8.7% -17.4% 41% 41% +2.3%
≤30d 89 +7.4% -2.8% 39% 39% +7.5%
≤90d 95 +4.6% -5.3% 38% 38% +7.8%
all 95 +4.6% -5.3% 38% 38% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 38% +7.8%
10% -14.4% 37% -2.5%
15% -22.7% 37% -11.9%
20% -30.3% 34% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$17 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$775
Realized+$800
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses36 / 59
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions5
Markets (closed)95 / 100
History coverage51d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $300 $296 −$4 (-1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 55¢ 54¢ $101 $98 −$3 (-3%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 27¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $304 +$196 +65%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $101 +$81 +80%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $202 −$8 -4%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $30 +$21 +68%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$28 +93%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 +$10 +97%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $51 +$74 +146%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$71 +140%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $101 +$82 +81%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $404 +$189 +47%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 +$5 +97%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $51 +$44 +86%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $50 +$21 +42%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $20 −$8 -39%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 $0 -6%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $50 −$4 -8%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-1.5) Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 23 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 23 $34 +$47 +140%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$50 +50%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $575 +$74 +13%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$19 +62%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$29 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $31 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $51 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $306 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $102 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $182 16h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 19h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $178 19h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 22h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $304 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 26h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $101 26h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $101 26h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 62¢ $195 26h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $202 26h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $101 27h
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $30 47h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $10 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 47h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $51 47h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $51 47h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $51 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $101 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $51 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $15 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $51 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $775.25 · official $775.25 (match) · 213 history records