Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:14:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
22 0x229c…641e sports 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+1%) realized −$10 · open +$47
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%118W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$94
14 days+$92
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$13
other 6% +$78
crypto 6% −$21
world 2% −$14
tech 2% +$4
economics 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +10.0% -0.5% 69% 37% +8.3%
≤30d 107 +4.8% -5.1% 61% 46% -2.5%
≤90d 208 -2.8% -12.0% 54% 45% -10.6%
all 224 -4.8% -13.8% 53% 44% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 44% -9.3%
10% -22.1% 43% -18.0%
15% -29.6% 40% -25.9%
20% -36.5% 38% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$370
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses118 / 106
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions24
Markets (closed)224 / 248
History coverage114d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $20 $56 +$36 (+178%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 45¢ 44¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 95¢ 96¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 33¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 56¢ 96¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+72%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 63¢ 100¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+58%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 54¢ 55¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Samsung Lions 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jessica Pegula 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Doosan Bears 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos SSG Landers 54¢ 53¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? No 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 52¢ 74¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $12 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $4 +$3 +86%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$32 +158%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $20 $0 -2%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 15 $17 −$5 -27%
BC Neptunas Klaipeda vs. BC Lietkabelis Panevezys Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 15 $20 $0 -2%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $20 +$15 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $20 +$35 +172%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 15 $41 +$28 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $10 +$8 +79%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 11 $10 +$8 +83%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 11 $10 +$9 +90%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 11 $10 +$9 +90%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $10 +$9 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$14 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY SSG Landers 54¢ $10 1h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY Doosan Bears 53¢ $10 1h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 65¢ $10 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 54¢ $10 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 54¢ $10 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 55¢ $10 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 95¢ $20 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 100¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 13¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 45¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 1h
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 53¢ $4 3d
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Franco Agamenone 51¢ $10 3d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 58¢ $10 3d
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa BUY Legia Warszawa 55¢ $10 3d
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 56¢ $10 3d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 65¢ $10 3d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 66¢ $10 3d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 60¢ $10 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $10 3d
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Elise Mertens 53¢ $10 3d
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 51¢ $10 3d
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Nuria Brancaccio 46¢ $2 3d
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Coleman Wong 59¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.85 · official $369.85 (match) · 403 history records