Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
22 0x2299…d23a other 14 markets active 3h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$572 (+21%) realized +$535 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$937now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$1,339
crypto 26% −$700
sports 7% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -32.2% -38.6% 25% 25% +15.7%
≤30d 12 -32.2% -38.6% 25% 25% +15.7%
≤90d 12 -32.2% -38.6% 25% 25% +15.7%
all 12 -32.2% -38.6% 25% 25% +15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 25% +15.7%
10% -44.5% 25% +4.6%
15% -49.9% 25% -5.5%
20% -54.8% 25% -14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$575 vs −$135 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$937
Realized+$535
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage7d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $800 $804 +$4 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$44 +86%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$35 -67%
Jordy Caicedo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $609 −$600 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $499 +$1,649 +330%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 2h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $17 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $51 4d
Jordy Caicedo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $20 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $153 4d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $51 4d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $51 4d
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $51 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $406 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 4d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $102 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 21¢ $102 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $511 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 83¢ $2,148 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $60 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $936.89 · official $936.89 (match) · 33 history records