Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:39:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2299…8f6a other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 388d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$496 (-4%) realized −$496 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate79%33W / 9L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$386
7 days−$771
14 days−$765
30 days−$765
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$941
world 26% −$79
crypto 11% +$127
sports 10% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -6.5% -15.4% 69% 31% -17.8%
≤30d 17 -5.8% -14.7% 71% 29% -17.6%
≤90d 22 -4.2% -13.3% 77% 23% -16.5%
all 42 -4.6% -13.7% 79% 29% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 29% -15.8%
10% -22.0% 10% -23.9%
15% -29.5% 0% -31.2%
20% -36.4% 0% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$194 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

388d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$496
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses33 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage388d
Avg bet$300
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $382 −$91 -24%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $286 −$212 -74%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $737 −$428 -58%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,339 +$127 +10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,573 +$82 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $940 +$63 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $392 +$72 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $331 +$61 +18%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $313 +$17 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $306 +$8 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $250 +$57 +23%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $355 +$40 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $212 −$7 -3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 +$5 +5%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $165 +$47 +29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $778 −$613 -79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $200 +$2 +1%
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? Apr 01 $562 +$7 +1%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? Mar 23 $158 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30? Mar 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Jan 15 $200 +$3 +2%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? Jan 15 $300 +$23 +8%
Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31? Jul 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Earthquake 7.0 or above before August? Jul 02 $86 −$86 -100%
Earthquake 7.0 or above in June? Jun 30 $110 +$36 +33%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jun 23 $300 +$56 +19%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 22 $417 +$62 +15%
US military action against Iran before August? Jun 22 $200 +$40 +20%
New Air Force One in 2025? Jun 17 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30? Jun 11 $503 +$20 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Monday? Jun 09 $259 −$259 -100%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Jun 08 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July? Jun 05 $10 +$2 +19%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 05 $100 +$7 +7%
Another Earthquake 7.0 or above in May? Jun 01 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June? Jun 01 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$7 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $6 42m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $74 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $72 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 52¢ $286 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $285 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $308 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $309 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $60 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $676 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $730 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $729 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $609 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $581 17h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $586 17h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 75¢ $467 17h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 43¢ $466 18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $526 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $476 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 80¢ $476 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $464 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $464 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $392 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 84¢ $331 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $330 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $313 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $314 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $306 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $306 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $250 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records