Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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22 0x2294…4cd3 sports 358 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12,843 (+37%) realized +$13,008 · open −$165
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate40%141W / 214L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day49.1pace
Fees−$616est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$52
other 0% −$11
crypto 0% −$4
world 0% +$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -14.7% -22.8% 40% 28% -5.4%
≤30d 163 -13.7% -21.9% 42% 23% -6.5%
≤90d 355 -14.7% -22.8% 40% 29% -9.3%
all 355 -14.7% -22.8% 40% 29% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 29% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 25% -17.9%
15% -36.9% 23% -25.9%
20% -43.1% 20% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$66 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized+$13,008
Unrealized−$165
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses141 / 214
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$616
Open positions3
Markets (closed)355 / 358
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$97
Trades / day49.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan South Africa 85¢ 98¢ $212 $244 +$32 (+15%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Pakistan 8¢ 2¢ $194 $45 −$149 (-77%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Scotland 25¢ 28¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+14%)
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Afghanistan 6¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $11 −$3 -23%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 17 $25 −$9 -35%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $582 +$32 +6%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $146 −$81 -56%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $183 +$624 +341%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $195 −$126 -65%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $45 +$41 +92%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 14 $138 +$381 +277%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $781 +$524 +67%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 14 $422 −$422 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Completed matc Jun 14 $164 +$29 +18%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 14 $165 −$119 -72%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $572 −$572 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa - Completed match? Jun 13 $18 $0 +2%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $29 +$30 +105%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Brazil Jun 11 $3 −$2 -57%
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Cambodia vs Indonesia Jun 11 $29 +$10 +35%
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Thailand vs Bhutan Jun 11 $25 +$2 +8%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: United Arab Emirates vs Malaysia Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Malawi Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs Nepal Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Saudi Arabia - Completed match? Jun 10 $17 −$17 -100%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 10 $205 −$170 -83%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 10 $729 +$985 +135%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 09 $681 −$676 -99%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Complete Jun 09 $5 +$5 +100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Philippines vs United Arab Emirates Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Saudi Arabia Jun 09 $18 +$198 +1100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Philippines vs United Arab Emirates - Comp Jun 09 $12 +$1 +9%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 09 $50 +$4 +8%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $330 −$260 -79%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bhutan vs Qatar Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Jun 07 $1 $0 +46%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Bahrain vs Singapore Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan - Completed match? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire - Completed match? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Malaysia Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 07 $208 +$303 +146%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Oman vs Philippines Jun 07 $23 −$23 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bahrain vs Japan Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Oman vs Saudi Arabia Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 0¢ $0 1m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 2¢ $7 17m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 4¢ $10 21m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 5¢ $7 22m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 5¢ $25 23m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 3¢ $1 24m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 5¢ $10 32m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 7¢ $1 33m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 10¢ $9 37m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 0¢ $0 42m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 11¢ $1 46m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 11¢ $1 47m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 17¢ $4 53m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 17¢ $3 54m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 17¢ $27 57m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 0¢ $0 57m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 0¢ $0 57m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 0¢ $0 59m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 0¢ $0 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 0¢ $0 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 16¢ $17 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 0¢ $2 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 25¢ $1 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 85¢ $213 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 16¢ $8 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 16¢ $8 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 16¢ $0 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 25¢ $1 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 18¢ $25 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands 0¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.29 · official $327.87 · 3500 history records