Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:06:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2291…b0c9 crypto 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$114 (-2%) realized −$102 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%19W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$180
7 days−$402
14 days−$95
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$266
other 35% −$301
sports 16% +$255
weather 2% −$9
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -37.1% -43.0% 28% 28% -34.2%
≤30d 53 +0.3% -9.2% 32% 32% -13.9%
≤90d 62 -6.4% -15.3% 31% 31% -15.1%
all 62 -6.4% -15.3% 31% 31% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 31% -15.1%
10% -23.4% 31% -23.2%
15% -30.8% 24% -30.6%
20% -37.6% 21% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$56 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses19 / 43
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage48d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 2.5 Under 28¢ 28¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+2%)
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-06-28? Yes 38¢ 30¢ $66 $53 −$13 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 27 $53 −$51 -97%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $131 −$129 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $182 −$175 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $121 +$61 +50%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $60 −$58 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $127 −$122 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $149 +$35 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $131 +$67 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $92 +$33 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $71 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $66 +$250 +381%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $175 +$54 +31%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $105 +$77 +73%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $96 −$73 -76%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $133 −$7 -5%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $198 +$50 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$191 +2232%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $336 +$202 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $121 −$121 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $129 +$104 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $131 +$118 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $131 −$131 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $51 +$114 +223%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $197 +$102 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $65 −$65 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 07 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 06 $73 −$73 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 06 $265 +$404 +153%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 06 $32 −$32 -100%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $194 +$103 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 28¢ $64 12m
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 38¢ $67 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $53 11h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 45¢ $131 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $182 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $182 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $121 2d
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $127 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $184 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $149 2d
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $49 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $198 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $131 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $125 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $125 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $92 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $65 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $66 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $71 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $34 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $316 6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 20¢ $66 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 86¢ $229 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $175 9d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.18 · official $92.81 · 143 history records