Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:11:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
22 0x2290…2ca5 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-2%) realized −$13 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$608per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$1,484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$104
sports 10% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -22.7% -30.0% 75% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 4 -22.7% -30.0% 75% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 4 -22.7% -30.0% 75% 0% -12.8%
all 4 -22.7% -30.0% 75% 0% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 0% -12.8%
10% -36.7% 0% -21.1%
15% -42.8% 0% -28.7%
20% -48.4% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$97 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,484
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage4d
Avg bet$608
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 96¢ 94¢ $1,524 $1,484 −$41 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $300 +$9 +3%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $715 +$18 +2%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $401 +$15 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $97 −$97 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $76 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $475 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $213 2h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $75 2h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $392 2h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $294 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 97¢ $300 21h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 97¢ $734 21h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 93¢ $50 23h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $8 23h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $22 23h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 23h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $196 23h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $44 23h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 97¢ $209 25h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 97¢ $180 25h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $416 25h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 28h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $385 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $97 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,483.62 · official $1,483.62 (match) · 22 history records