Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:55:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x228b…1e85 sports 362 markets active 2h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$161 (-8%) realized −$161 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%193W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 60% −$38
sports 40% −$124
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 +14.2% +3.3% 100% 12% -9.1%
≤90d 54 -5.6% -14.6% 85% 9% -14.3%
all 361 -7.1% -15.9% 53% 42% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 42% -16.6%
10% -24.0% 41% -24.6%
15% -31.3% 41% -31.8%
20% -38.1% 40% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses193 / 168
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)361 / 362
History coverage229d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 361 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 167 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? Jun 29 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 25? Jun 26 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 31? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 31 $30 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $1 +$1 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1 +$1 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on May 26? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on May 25? May 25 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 19? May 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 19? May 20 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C or higher on May 19? May 20 $33 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 13? May 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on May 14? May 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May May 13 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 68°F or higher on May 11? May 11 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 74°F or higher on May 10? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on May 10? May 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 72°F or higher on May 4? May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on May 3? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on May 3? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 48°F or higher on May 4? May 03 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 27? Apr 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 27? Apr 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 27? Apr 27 $20 $0 +1%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5 Apr 27 $4 $0 +8%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 207.5 Apr 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 Apr 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $18 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 17? Apr 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 58°F or higher on April 14? Apr 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 12? Apr 13 $59 −$49 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C or higher on April 8? Apr 08 $57 +$1 +1%
76ers vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5 Apr 04 $2 +$2 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 2? Apr 04 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on April 3? Apr 04 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 3? Apr 04 $8 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 2? Apr 04 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on Apri Apr 04 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $60 4d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $60 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $20 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $20 9d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $20 9d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $60 10d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $60 18d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $60 19d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $31 20d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 20d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $31 24d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $30 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 29d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $1 29d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma BUY Yes 100¢ $30 29d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 29d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on May 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 34d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 34d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 34d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on May 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 34d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 19? BUY No 99¢ $14 40d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 40d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C or higher on May 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $33 40d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 46d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on May 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 46d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May SELL Yes 99¢ $30 46d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 46d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.94 · official $59.94 (match) · 591 history records