Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:04:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x228b…e30a
world · 41 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$91
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage311d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 2 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 -10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 -4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $105 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $148 +$2 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 07 $121 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $294 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 12 $6 −$1 -21%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $147 +$1 +1%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August? Aug 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 13 $14 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $1 $0 +7%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or higher on Aug Aug 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 06 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 51% $0
other 23% +$1
economics 9% +$1
politics 7% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 32m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 32m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $95 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 44h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 44h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $100 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $43 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $150 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 99¢ $14 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 99¢ $18 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 99¢ $37 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 99¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 99¢ $36 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 99¢ $50 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 99¢ $55 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $7 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $110 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 9 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 9 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -9.3%
all 39 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.30 · official $90.65 (match) · 148 history records